A US recession is effectively certain in the next 12 months in new Bloomberg Economics model projections, a blow to President Joe Biden’s economic messaging ahead of the November midterms.
The latest recession probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger forecast a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period in the previous update.
The forecast will be unwelcome news for Biden, who has repeatedly said the US will avoid a recession and that any downturn would be “very slight,” as he seeks to reassure Americans the economy is on solid footing under his administration.
But tightening financial conditions, persistent inflation and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve pressing ahead with rate hikes are raising the risk of a contraction.
The model is more certain of a recession than other forecasts. A separate Bloomberg survey of 42 economists predicts the probability of a recession over the next 12 months now stands at 60%, up from 50% a month earlier.
Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden | Bloomberg
Skip The Scoop | Seek Understanding
‘Trump Was Right’ With Tougher Approach to China: Biden’s Top Diplomat Nominee
President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee for secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Jan. 19 that the Trump administration took the correct stance toward the Chinese regime, although he disagrees with the approach. “President Trump was right in taking a tougher approach to China. I disagree very much with the way he went about it in a number of areas, but the basic principle was the right one,” Blinken said at a hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee the day before Biden was set to take office. “And I think that that’s actually helpful to our foreign policy.” Blinken, a veteran foreign policy hand who’s a close confidant of Biden, pledged at the hearing to work with U.S. allies to confront the regime. “If we’re pulling back, that gives them a free field,” he said, referring to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Tackling the various threats posed by the Chinese …
President Trump’s Farewell Address to the Nation: Full Transcript
My fellow Americans, four years ago we launched a great national effort to rebuild our country, to renew its spirit, and to restore the allegiance of this government to its citizens. In short, we embarked on a mission to make America great again for all Americans. As I conclude my term as the 45th president of the United States, I stand before you truly proud of what we have achieved together. We did what we came here to do—and so much more. This week, we inaugurate a new administration and pray for its success in keeping America safe and prosperous. We extend our best wishes, and we also want them to have luck—a very important word. I’d like to begin by thanking just a few of the amazing people who made our remarkable journey possible. First, let me express my overwhelming gratitude for the love and support of our spectacular …
The New Domestic War on Terror is Coming
The last two weeks have ushered in a wave of new domestic police powers and rhetoric in the name of fighting “terrorism” that are carbon copies of many of the worst excesses of the first War on Terror that began nearly twenty years ago. This trend shows no sign of receding as we move farther from the January 6 Capitol riot. The opposite is true: it is intensifying.
We have witnessed an orgy of censorship from Silicon Valley monopolies with calls for far more aggressive speech policing, a visibly militarized Washington, D.C. featuring a non-ironically named “Green Zone,” vows from the incoming president and his key allies for a new anti-domestic terrorism bill, and frequent accusations of “sedition,” “treason,” and “terrorism” against members of Congress and citizens. This is all driven by a radical expansion of the meaning of “incitement to violence.” It is accompanied by viral-on-social-media pleas that one work with the FBI to turn in one’s fellow citizens (See Something, Say Something!) and demands for a new system of domestic surveillance.
Underlying all of this are immediate insinuations that anyone questioning any of this must, by virtue of these doubts, harbor sympathy for the Terrorists and their neo-Nazi, white supremacist ideology. Liberals have spent so many years now in a tight alliance with neocons and the CIA that they are making the 2002 version of John Ashcroft look like the President of the (old-school) ACLU.
Trump Issues Executive Order Protecting Americans From ‘Overcriminalization’ by Regulations
President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Monday that aims to protect Americans from “overcriminalization” by regulations. The order seeks to make the consequences of violating certain regulations more transparent as a safeguard against unwarranted criminal punishment for unintentional regulatory violations. “In the interest of fairness, federal criminal law should be clearly written so that all Americans can understand what is prohibited and act accordingly,” Trump wrote. The move dovetails with Trump’s broader effort to reduce regulatory burden on individuals and companies, a hallmark of his administration. “Some statutes have authorized executive branch agencies to promulgate thousands of regulations, creating a thicket of requirements that can be difficult to navigate, and many of these regulations are enforceable through criminal processes and penalties,” the president noted. The order seeks to reduce regulatory burden on Americans by making sure they are adequately informed about potential criminal liability for violations of regulations. …
Trump Signs Executive Order to Protect US Against Security Threats From Drones
President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Jan. 18 to prevent the U.S. federal government from using drones manufactured by foreign adversaries, including China. Drones, also known as unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), have been used increasingly across all levels of the U.S. governments for tasks including assisting law enforcement and supporting natural disaster relief efforts, the executive order explained. “Reliance on UAS and components manufactured by our adversaries, however, threatens our national and economic security,” the president said in the order, warning that information collected by drones could be “accessed by or transferred to foreign adversaries.” These components include sensors, cameras, software, and artificial intelligence technologies. Therefore, Trump said U.S. taxpayers’ money should not be used to fund federal procurement of drones that “present unacceptable risks and are manufactured by, or contain software or critical electronic components from, foreign adversaries.” Under the executive order, all heads of U.S. government …
War on Terror Brought Home – Ben and Glenn’s After Hours #4
In this new episode, Ben and Glenn explore the fallout from the Capitol riot, the spate of Silicon Valley censorship in response, what appears to be a liberal desire for a new War on Terror, and whether Elizabeth Warren really loves Bailey.
As previously noted, AFTER HOURS is intended to be a more conversational and sometimes-though-not-always lighter ex…
Prisão Preventiva e Abusos Judiciários: Lava Jato, Crivella, Oswaldo: com Augusto de Arruda Botelho – Aprofundando #3
No terceiro episódio do podcast Aprofundando, Glenn Greenwald e Victor Pougy conversam com o advogado criminalista Augusto de Arruda Botelho sobre prisão preventiva e como a operação Lava-Jato utilizou essa instituição de forma abusiva, e outras questões referentes às garantias constitucionais.
Além do abuso desse poder por Lava Jato, discutimos casos recentes polêmicos de prisão preventiva e censura: os casos do ex-prefeito do Rio Marcello Crivella, e a investigação do STF liderada pelo Ministro Alexandre de Moraes contra vários blogueiros bolsonaristas, incluindo Oswaldo Eustáquio, Sara Winter, Allan dos Santos e outros.
Augusto de Arruda Botelho é um advogado criminalista com atuação na defesa dos direitos fundamentais. É membro conselheiro da Human Rights Watch Brasil, e um dos fundadores do Instituto de Defesa do Direito de Defesa e do Projeto Aliança.
Siga o Augusto no twitter: https://twitter.com/augustodeAB
Siga o Glenn no twitter: twitter.com/ggreenwald
Leia o Glenn em: greenwald.substack.com/
Siga o Victor no twitter: twitter.com/vpougy
Violence in the Capitol, Dangers in the Aftermath
In the days and weeks after the 9/11 attack, Americans were largely united in emotional horror at what had been done to their country as well as in their willingness to endorse repression and violence in response. As a result, there was little room to raise concerns about the possible excesses or dangers of the American reaction, let alone to dissent from what political leaders were proposing in the name of vengeance and security. The psychological trauma from the carnage and the wreckage at the country’s most cherished symbols swamped rational faculties and thus rendered futile any attempts to urge restraint or caution. . .
True the Vote: Abrams’ Sister’s Ruling Wrong on Law, Clear Conflict
True the Vote: Abrams’ Sister’s Ruling Wrong on Law, Clear Conflict
ATLANTA, Georgia – Responding to a ruling by U.S. District Court Judge Leslie Abrams Gardner that suspended the efforts of Muscogee and Ben Hill counties to verify the eligibility of challenged voters, True the Vote today called on the judge to recuse herself from the case and encouraged the counties to appeal the decision.
“Judge Gardner’s ruling is wrong on the law, and the glaring conflict of interest – pointed out by Muscogee County – undermines faith in the judicial process,” said Catherine Engelbrecht, the founder and president of True the Vote, an organization that has partner with electors throughout the state to ensure that every legal vote is counted in the January 5 Georgia Senate runoff elections.
One of the defendants, Muscogee County, asked Judge Gardner to recuse herself because her sister, Stacey Abrams, has generated significant fundraising for the plaintiff’s organization and Abrams’ own group has filed a case dealing with the exact same issues against True the Vote.
“Georgia voters have every reason to question a ruling that doesn’t follow the law but does deliver for her sister’s political agenda,” Engelbrecht said. “This entire ruling is based on the idea that these challenges are about removing voters from the registration list – a situation where the judge could apply federal law. These challenges, however, wouldn’t remove anyone from the voter registration list; the challenges are the remedy allowed under Georgia state law to verify that a particular voter is eligible to vote specifically in the January 5 runoff election. Federal law doesn’t regulate that, and the judge’s ruling should be overturned.
“In this case, Gardner’s ruling is based solely on the point of view of the plaintiffs. The counties involved didn’t even get to have their say. Perhaps a fair hearing in the light of day – as opposed to a decree issued in the dead of night – would have given the judge some insight on what’s really happening in these cases.”
# # #
True the Vote (TTV) is an IRS-designated 501(c)3 voters’ rights organization, founded to inspire and equip volunteers for involvement at every stage of our electoral process. TTV empowers organizations and individuals across the nation to actively protect the rights of legitimate voters, regardless of their political party affiliation. For more information, please visit www.truethevote.org.
The post True the Vote: Abrams’ Sister’s Ruling Wrong on Law, Clear Conflict appeared first on True The Vote.
Jupiter-Saturn Great Conjunction: Watch Best View Since Middle Ages!
by Lance D. Davis
Stargazers get ready for a nice treat as we are about to witness a super-rare planetary alignment not seen for almost 800 years!
Our solar system’s two biggest worlds – the mighty Jupiter followed by the glorious ringed Saturn – will appear in the sky next to each other at their closest since 1623 and closest visible from Earth since the Middle Ages in 1226. This will happen on Dec. 21, 2020, during an event called a “great conjunction.”
Astronomers use the word conjunction to describe close approaches of planets and other objects on our sky’s dome. They use great conjunction specifically for Jupiter and Saturn because of the planets’ top-ranking sizes.
Credit: NASA
Since Election Night The Presidential Winner Has Been In Dispute
Since Election Night The Presidential Winner Has Been In Dispute. Rudy Giuliani’s Press Conference On November 19, 2020, Explains The Issues In Question.
Video: 1 Hour 31 Minutes
*Click For Video Excerpts Below
Sky Watching Highlights for October 2020
There’s plenty to see in the sky for October! The Moon will be full not once, but twice this month. It’s also a great time for viewing Mars and trying to spot the galaxy of Andromeda. Learn more from the video below produced by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
International Observe the Moon Night 2020
by Lance D. Davis
International Observe the Moon Night is a worldwide public event encouraging observation, appreciation and understanding of our Moon and its connection to NASA exploration and discovery.
This is a great time to celebrate the Moon with enthusiasts and curious people all over Earth as excitement grows about NASA’s Artemis program, which will send the next man and first woman to the Moon.
Since 2010, the celebration has occurred annually in September or October when the Moon is around first quarter – a great phase for excellent viewing opportunities.
You can join NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center for a live planetarium show Saturday, Sept. 26 at 6:30 p.m. CDT – available online to everyone via YouTube and Facebook. Interviews with planetary and citizen scientists will also be included.
This virtual event is brought to you by the Planetary Missions Program Office at Marshall and U.S. Space & Rocket Center.
Whether it’s outdoors, at home, online, or wherever you may be, you are encouraged to be a part of International Observe the Moon Night. Please remember to follow your local health and safety guidelines.
Learn more and find other events here.
- « Previous
- 1
- …
- 82
- 83
- 84