The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted lives the world over for more than a year. Its death toll will soon reach three million people. Yet the origin of pandemic remains uncertain: the political agendas of governments and scientists have generated thick clouds of obfuscation, which the mainstream press seems helpless to dispel.

In what follows I will sort through the available scientific facts, which hold many clues as to what happened, and provide readers with the evidence to make their own judgments. I will then try to assess the complex issue of blame, which starts with, but extends far beyond, the government of China.

By the end of this article, you may have learned a lot about the molecular biology of viruses. I will try to keep this process as painless as possible. But the science cannot be avoided because for now, and probably for a long time hence, it offers the only sure thread through the maze.

The virus that caused the pandemic is known officially as SARS-CoV-2, but can be called SARS2 for short. As many people know, there are two main theories about its origin. One is that it jumped naturally from wildlife to people. The other is that the virus was under study in a lab, from which it escaped. It matters a great deal which is the case if we hope to prevent a second such occurrence.

I’ll describe the two theories, explain why each is plausible, and then ask which provides the better explanation of the available facts. It’s important to note that so far there is no direct evidence for either theory. Each depends on a set of reasonable conjectures but so far lacks proof. So I have only clues, not conclusions, to offer. But those clues point in a specific direction. And having inferred that direction, I’m going to delineate some of the strands in this tangled skein of disaster.

Vice President Kamala Harris shared a smooch with second husband Doug Emhoff while both were masked on Wednesday, before she hopped aboard Air Force Two and he departed to catch a separate flight, though both are fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

Harris was headed to Rhode Island, where she later dropped by a local store and purchased four books, including one discussing ‘white male rage,’ the Daily Mail reported. Emhoff, meanwhile, traveled to visit a microbrewery in Pennsylvania.

But the shared kiss drew outsized attention given that the second couple is vaccinated and, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines, vaccinated people need not mask up while outdoors.

But experts also warn that a “substantial increase” in hospitalizations and deaths is possible if unvaccinated people do not follow basic precautions such as wearing a mask and keeping their distance from others.

NEW YORK — Teams of experts are projecting COVID-19’s toll on the U.S. will fall sharply by the end of July, according to research released by the government Wednesday.

But they also warn that a “substantial increase” in hospitalizations and deaths is possible if unvaccinated people do not follow basic precautions such as wearing a mask and keeping their distance from others.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention paper included projections from six research groups. Their assignment was to predict the course of the U.S. epidemic between now and September under different scenarios, depending on how the vaccination drive proceeds and how people behave.

Mainly, it’s good news. Even under scenarios involving disappointing vaccination rates, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths are expected to drop dramatically by the end of July and continue to fall afterward.

The CDC is now reporting an average of about 350,000 new cases each week, 35,000 hospitalizations and over 4,000 deaths.

Under the most optimistic scenarios considered, by the end of July new weekly national cases could drop below 50,000, hospitalizations to fewer than 1,000, and deaths to between 200 and 300.

Canada is the first country to authorize Pfizer for that age group. The U.S. and the European Union are also reviewing it.

TORONTO — Canadian health officials said Wednesday they have become the first to approve Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine for ages as young as 12.

Dr. Supriya Sharma, chief medical adviser at Health Canada, confirmed the decision for ages 12 to 15 and said it will help children return to a normal life. Canada is the first country to authorize Pfizer for that age group. The U.S. and the European Union are also reviewing it.

The vaccine was previously authorized for anyone 16 or older.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is also expected to authorize Pfizer’s vaccine for young people by next week, setting up shots for many before the beginning of the next school year. The announcement comes barely a month after the company found that its shot, which is already authorized for those age 16 and older, also provided protection for the younger group.

Pfizer in late March released preliminary results from a vaccine study of 2,260 U.S. volunteers ages 12 to 15 showing there were no cases of COVID-19 among fully vaccinated adolescents compared with 18 among those given dummy shots.

Sharma said the evidence is there that the vaccine is safe and effective in that age group. It is the first vaccine approved for children in Canada.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Army hosted a Facebook live town hall on the topic of concerns about COVID-19 vaccines.

The virtual town hall followed this format:

• Affirm soldiers who took the experimental vaccine or question soldiers who have not yet taken the vaccine.
• Legitimize an Army doctor as a drug expert to counter risks or concerns without citing any references for the information provided.
• Leverage the influence of the Sergeant Major of the Army, the highest ranking non-commissioned officer, to persuade soldiers to risk taking the experimental drug without providing factual informed consent.

This format was designed to not only promote maximum conversion of soldiers to take the Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) drug, but also to convince them to persuade their friends and family to do the same.

The overall tone of the town hall was respectful and caring, but the false efficacy claims and risk omissions are indicators of dysfunctional groupthink at best, or cult mentality at worst.

The U.S. Army leadership is persuading soldiers to put blind faith in an EUA drug using miraculous claims even the manufacturers do not make about their products.

The six-person town hall panel consisted of Sergeant Major of the Army (SMA) Michael Grinston; Dr. Steven Cersovsky, science advisor to the U.S. Army Medical Command; three U.S. Army service members; and a moderator.

The one-hour session addressed three main concerns about the COVID vaccine among military members: infertility, variants of the virus and the speed with which the vaccines were developed.

Cersovsky began the town hall with an evangelistic sales pitch for the vaccine beginning with this statement: “The good news is the vaccine is available, there is light at the end of the tunnel and taking the vaccine protects you, protects the community and protects our nation.”

Cersovsky went on to acknowledge concerns about the speed with which the vaccines were developed and the risks that may pose to public safety, but then said, the “only risk to public safety is not getting vaccinated.”

According to Cersovsky, viral salvation can be achieved only by getting the vaccine. He vaguely referred to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and “data” without actually providing any data from the clinical trials or surveillance systems.

The medical ethics of informed consent requires doctors to tell patients the risk of the disease, the known benefits of the medical intervention, the known risks of the intervention and alternatives to the intervention. Cersovsky mentioned none of these.

In the case of the COVID vaccine, informed consent requires doctors inform soldiers of the following:

• Risk of disease: Most people have a 99.9% survival rate for SARS-CoV2, with increased risk of severe disease in elderly populations with co-morbid health conditions. Per the CDC, the most frequent underlying medical conditions were obesity (35.1%), diabetes (8.4%) and pulmonary disease (7.8%).
• Efficacy of Intervention: EUA COVID vaccines did not demonstrate prevention of infection or transmission of the virus in the clinical trials. Symptom prevention is the primary endpoint for the clinical trials. Consent to a COVID vaccine is equivalent to voluntary participation in an ongoing phase 3 clinical trial ending in 2022 or 2023.
• Risks of Intervention: The manufacturers reported a comprehensive list of known adverse reactions in the Moderna COVID-19 EUA Fact Sheet and Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 EUA Fact Sheet including severe reactions of anaphylaxis, appendicitis, Bell’s Palsy and death. On April 13, U.S. health officials temporarily suspended the use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine over concerns of potential fatal blood clotting disorders. In the event of an adverse reaction, participants are not eligible for compensation because COVID vaccines are shielded from liability under the Public Readiness and Emergency Preparedness (PREP) Act of March 2020 as a “countermeasure.”
• Alternatives: There is a research-based meta-analysis of more than 562 studies of effective preventative alternatives including long-term established therapeutics of Ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine and vitamin D.

After thousands of deaths were reported on the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) by health care professionals, the CDC released a statement claiming there was no evidence of vaccine related deaths. This may be shocking to family members, but what’s more interesting is that Americans are bypassing the CDC and informing each other and their local doctors directly about vaccine issues, such as swollen lymph nodes. “I’m sure it’s, you know, hundreds of thousands of women across the country will be affected by this, for sure.” ~ Dr. Laura Esserman, University of California, San Francisco. Oncologists and breast imaging experts are advising women who have scheduled mammograms to get them before the vaccine or 4 to 8 weeks after they are fully vaccinated to get a clear picture and avoid confusion. Of course, the CDC will probably chalk it up to women and their fits of ‘anxiety‘.

Dr. Anthony Fauci admitted Wednesday that the Center for Disease Control and Prevention’s guidelines for children’s summer camps are not “sensible.”

Fauci agreed with Good Morning America co-host Savannah Guthrie, who said, “The science doesn’t suggest those CDC guidelines are too sensible. For little kids outside in 90-degree heat, running around with masks?”

“Yeah, Savannah. You’ve asked me that question a couple of times before,” Fauci responded.

fizer anticipates applying in September for an emergency use authorization allowing youth ages 2 through 11 to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

The company expects this month to seek full approval for giving the vaccine to people ages 16 and up, according to CEO Albert Bourla’s prepared remarks for an earnings conference call.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is expected to soon approve the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for kids ages 12 to 15.

The following is a news analysis.

The highly-regarded National Vaccine Information Center (NVIC) says it has been de-platformed by Facebook and Instagram, as those working in the interest of the pharmaceutical industry further clamp down on open online access to important medical information.

Rational thinking and freedom of speech about vaccination and public health laws is no longer tolerated online.

Barbara Loe Fisher, National Vaccine Information Center

Though NVIC is neither “pro-” nor “anti-” vaccine, the group is a target because it provides reputable scientific information to parents and medical professionals about vaccine safety concerns, from individual “lots” of vaccines that are recalled by the manufacturer or prove problematic; to peer-reviewed, published studies related to vaccine safety issues.